Israel’s Strikes Set Back Iran’s Missile Program — But the Threat Remains

by | Apr 23, 2026 | News

flying rocket during daytime

Six weeks of intensive US-Israeli strikes on Iran devastated much of Tehran’s military infrastructure — but Iran’s ballistic missile program, though battered, remains a live threat.

The IDF estimates Iran entered the war with roughly 2,500 ballistic missiles. Today approximately 1,000 remain. Around 200 of Iran’s 470 launch platforms were destroyed outright, and another 80 were rendered temporarily inoperable when Israel struck the entrances to underground storage facilities. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declared the campaign had “functionally destroyed” Iran’s missile program. Israeli military officials tell a more cautious story.

The challenge is geological and tactical. Iran buries its missile infrastructure deep inside mountain ranges. Israel’s air force can “plug” tunnel entrances, but Iran has proven it can clear rubble within 48 hours. Satellite imagery captured dump trucks actively removing debris at struck sites even after the April 8 ceasefire.

Iran’s mobile launchers — built on modified commercial trucks, cheap and dispersed among civilian areas — compound the difficulty. Iran adapted its firing tactics in real time throughout the campaign to blunt Israeli targeting.

Israel’s most significant achievement may be the destruction of Iran’s production capacity. Without intervention, Iran would have amassed 8,000 missiles within 18 months — enough to overwhelm Israeli air defenses and cause catastrophic damage. That timeline is now dramatically extended.

Israel’s concern now centers on the diplomatic table. With US-Iran ceasefire negotiations resuming, Jerusalem fears a deal may allow Iran to quietly rebuild its arsenal. Tehran has already declared its missile program non-negotiable.

Israel and the US set back Iran’s missile program significantly — a remarkable military achievement. But Iran retains a formidable stockpile, an adaptive military, and the will to rebuild. The current ceasefire may be less an endpoint than an intermission.

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